The Super Bowl lineup is dissected on a daily basis during the two weeks leading up to the match. But Patriots and Rams backers might be better off waiting until after the game kicks off to place their bets. If Super Bowl LIII is a back-and-forth battle, there’s a really good chance a better line will be accessible on either side during in-play wagering than it was in pregame. “Whichever team you are trying to bet, if they’re trailing, you’ll Find a better amount,” said Craig Mucklow, that helped pioneer the use of in-play Betting 21 years back while employed for StanJames.com, a United Kingdom sports book. Welcome to in-game betting. In its infancy, vegas bettors and sportsbooks have had to adapt to the latest wave in sports gaming. When the Rams or Patriots rally to get a significant comeback win, vegas sportsbooks will certainly take a hit from the fast paced gambling option in which the point spread, money and total line are always corrected during a game. “Whenever a fantastic team is supporting and return to win, it’s just a matter of how much we lose,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “That is across the board in each game. If the Yankees or Red Sox reunite three or four runs and return to win, we’re dead.” Bad beat for sportsbooks Two years ago, sportsbooks suffered their worst in-play betting nightmare if the Patriots stormed back by a 28-3 second-half shortage in their 34-28 overtime win over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. New England was 16-1 about the in-play money line as it trailed 28-9 at the third quarter, and William Hill bettors cashed 159 in-play wagers at odds of 10-1 or greater. “You do not want to get torched for seven characters,” Bogdanovich said. Already a massive hit overseas, in-play gambling has become more and more popular in the United States together with the incidence of mobile programs. It accounted for 22% of the overall wagering handle at William Hill at 2017 and Bogdanovich estimates that figure has since climbed to approximately 30 percent. “It just keeps growing and growing, there is no question about it,” he said. “People love it.” In-play gambling gives gamblers the chance to hedge their pregame wagers, alter their pregame place, go to get a middle and more. “You get to watch the game and get a feel for the flow of the match. That is more important than any statistical tendencies,” professional sports bettor Frank Carulli explained. “Occasionally I will not bet the game to begin, I will just bet it in-game. Especially in the bowl games, because some groups appear and some don’t.” Mucklow, a mathematician having an advanced level in odds, said he expects in-play gambling to transcend pregame betting in the U.S. in four or five years. “It will not take long since individuals are at home and may bet on their smart phones,” he explained. “I really don’t think that it will ever hit the heights of Asia, but I anticipate it to likely be a 65-35 split eventually.” Mucklow is currently vice president of trading for Don Best Sports, a Las Vegas-based firm that provides data and odds to legal sportsbooks worldwide. He leads a team of 26 traders who monitor the in-play odds up to 55 games every day. The affable Englishman gave the Review-Journal a behind-the-scenes look in creating in-play odds this season throughout the Rams’ 38-31 win over the Vikings in September. Here’s a running recap of this activity: Algorithms and analytics Mucklow stands for the complete”Thursday Night Football” game also is a multitasking maestro, keeping tabs on seven displays that reveal two TV feeds, market chances, a bet ticker, a spreadsheet to manage obligations, a scorekeeping screen and a trading interface. Mucklow’s fingers mostly dance on the trading interface that reveals the in-play odds calculated from the Don Best computer algorithm. The algorithm has extensive knowledge of trends and tendencies of players and teams and a whole lot more. “We all know the impact of pitching changes, the effects of an empty web, the effect of humidity and heat on the next half totals of football matches,” Mucklow said. “These kinds of pieces of information influence the line. We’re always searching for analytics, and some of the best bettors are, also. “There is always a lot smarter than you out there that picks up tendencies faster and can the data better. It’s a cat and mouse game all the time.” The algorithm opens in-play wagering with the closing pregame lineup of the Rams by 7 and minus 300 on the cash line with a total of 49. As the game advances, the model constantly adjusts the odds depending on the score, time remaining, down and distance and other elements. Computer version merely a guide But it quickly becomes apparent that the algorithm is merely a manual for Mucklow, who constantly overrides it and punches in his own prices. “It is somewhat like the wife giving you advice,” Mucklow said facetiously. “It’s there, then you ignore her.” While the human element remains a massive part of making in-play odds, Mucklow has implemented safeguards for Don Best dealers. They’re limited to a maximum line move of 5 points off the computer model and can’t offer odds of over 25-1. 750-1 mishap The latter safeguard could have prevented the FanDuel sports book in New Jersey from providing 750-1 in-play money line odds on the Broncos in the final minute of their 20-19 win over the Raiders this season. When Brandon McManus kicked off the critical 36-yard field goal with six seconds left, one bettor won $82,000 on a $110 wager. FanDuel maintained the error was caused by a computer glitch. Rams on sale The Vikings go ahead 7-0 on a touchdown pass by Kirk Cousins about the game’s opening drive. Before the Rams even touch the ball, they drop to 31/2-point favorites. “Everybody will come in and wager the Rams,” Mucklow said. “Since you could not get them at minus 31/2 pregame.” Sure enough, wagers on Los Angeles start to pour on the ticker. The Rams then tie it 7-7 on a touchdown pass by Jared Goff. That escalated quickly Following two long drives take up most of the initial quarter, three bets totaling $150,000 are put on under the adjusted amount of 52. But matters escalate quickly out there in the shootout, as the teams trade touchdowns and Minnesota goes up 17-14 to drive the first-half total over 241/2. Too good to be true With the Vikings trailing 21-17 and confronting a second-and-20 in the two-minute warning, Mucklow tries to entice cash on Minnesota, moving it to and 425 on the money line. He does so because the Rams are poised to possess back-to-back possessions at the conclusion of the first half and beginning of the second half. “So it could be a 10-point or 14-point swing,” he explained. “The concept is to place the number higher on the Vikings cash line since the majority of individuals don’t realize who is getting the ball in the second half. I had to double check myself.” After Minnesota punts, Mucklow makes it 5-1 on the cash line and cash pours in on the Vikings. “Because, aesthetically, it looks wrong,” he said. Two plays later, Goff hits Brandin Cooks for a 47-yard touchdown pass to put the Rams up 28-17. Mucklow moves Minnesota to 7-1 moments after bettors jumped around it at 5-1. “It seemed too good to be true,” he said. “It does not always work out like this.” Bettors pound beneath The Vikings near 31-28 late in the third quarter to kill $157,000 in stakes on under 52. However, a total of 313,000 remains at stake for a single Don Best client on under 671/2. “I won’t get religious until the fourth quarter,” Mucklow said. With the Rams top 38-28 midway through the fourth and confronting first and goal at the 6, they resemble a lock to drive the total over 671/2. But Sam Ficken misses a 28-yard field goal. “In about four minutes, I will be praying to God for a pick-six,” Mucklow said. Off the grid With six minutes remaining, the algorithm automatically shuts off and Mucklow happens over manually. “On any sport, with six minutes left, it shuts down because it can not tell the match state,” he said. “There are certain things you can not teach an algorithm. You can’t teach an algorithm motivation. It can’t tell when a group is attempting to kill the clock” True to his word, Mucklow prays for a pick-six from Cousins later $180,000 in wagers are put on under 731/2. “I want things,” he said. “I do not care who.” Killing it Cousins promptly throws a pass toward the sideline that seems ripe for the picking. It drops incomplete, but Dan Bailey’s 40-yard field target makes the dent 38-31 and kills all stakes on under 671/2. With 1:29 left, Cousins loses a fumble at midfield and the Rams run out the clock as most pregame bettors settle for a push. The in-play roller-coaster ride finishes on a high note for one of Don Best’s biggest clients. Mucklow turns a profit of $233,000 from $1.5 million in wagers to get a 15.5 percent grip. “I will take 15 percent each and every day of the week,” he said. “I’m in shape right now, but there is bad days and good times. You want a bit of chance in the end.” More gambling: Follow at reviewjournal.com/betting and @RJ_Sports on Twitter. Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter. Read more here: http://midriks.com/point-counterpoint-notre-dame-vs-louisville-free-ncaaf-betting-picks/