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October 15, 2019 | Empowerment

Since Ottawa was hit by the SNC-Lavalin storm in early February, a staggering number of opinion polls are conducted. Data nerds like myself are not complaining, but a lot of surveys taken when public opinion is in flux makes a fair amount of noise–that can result in significant confusion for Republicans. Case in point: polls in the past month alone have ranged from 13 point CPC prospects (Angus Reid, L??ger) into a 4 stage LPC lead (Innovative Research), along with other polling firms somewhere in the midst (namely: Ipsos, Nanos and Campaign Research). Obviously, not all of these polls can be correct in precisely the same time frame, but it’s by taking all of them together and careful considering the regional breakdowns which we may hope to reduce the noise and realize the real data. The entire list of federal polls are found on this site. To calculate the subsequent 338 projection, polls are closely weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down each area of the nation. The 338 version also includes demographic information from the Canadian census in its own simulations to connect the movement of public comment per electoral district. Historical data of elections is taken consideration in the design. Details of this 338 methodology and past performance of this model can be found here. Readers should know that this is not a forecast of the outcome of the next election, but instead a projection of where the significant parties stand based on current data. When/if the data varies, the projection corrects itself. With 169 days until the national election, this really is your 338Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019. Read more here: http://midriks.com/breeders-cup-odds-2016-favorite-california-chrome-faces-test-from-arrogate-frosted/

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